The shortened 2020 season saw an invincible Novak Djokovic for a good portion of it; but it also saw a pandemic related controversy, an atypical disqualification and some uncharacteristic losses at the end of the year. All of this still capped a year where he ended as world number one, by a distance.
While Djokovic looked as unbeatable as ever for three quarters of the season, he did not leave his fans quite so confident by the end of the year with losses, the nature of which one does not associate with him and post match comments that found him less motivated than usual. 2021 remains all the more interesting, but until beaten Djokovic still remains the favorite nine times out of ten.
All the Makings of the G.O.A.T
As the Big Three have dominated the ATP tour for the last decade and a half, the inevitable question around the best of them all and perhaps the greatest of all time (GOAT) has been an ongoing one.
Each of Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic have created their case ever so strongly, and it has been hard to pick one against the other.
While being the first to many unprecedented records has always kept Federer ahead in this debate, Nadal being his greatest rival for a while threw that debate off in a different direction and the advent of Djokovic and his winning head-to-head against both Federer and Nadal has always kept him an integral part of the now three-way conversation.
Significantly younger than Federer and marginally younger and less injury prone than Nadal, with 17 major titles, having won every Masters 1000 title twice over, 300 weeks at number one, six year end number one rankings and many such records, it is not incorrect to argue that when all is said and done, Djokovic may hold most if not all records that are an integral part of the GOAT conversation.
While 2020 started and looked every bit like that, it did not quite end that way, but does that change how we feel about the road ahead?
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Is the Ruthlessly Efficient Djokovic Less Invincible Now?
While Federer has been associated with grace, elegance, poetry in motion, and Nadal with grit, stamina, belief, the two words best used to describe Djokovic’s game are among others, ‘ ruthlessly efficient’. It is this trait that has seen him transform from the best number three ranked player at one time to among the best the game has ever seen.
A game that does not possess any evident weakness, an underrated serve, the best return in the game ever perhaps and movement on the court that makes him seem more like gliding than running, Djokovic has been invincible for most of the last decade. When there was a lull in the 2016-2017 time-frame, he came stronger than ever and continued the winning sequence like it had never stopped.
But, have recent times shown that he is not quite as invincible? The Djokovic of 2011 & 2015 was once in a lifetime, perhaps twice in a lifetime here. But, the 2018 Wimbledon and US Open wins and the 2019 Wimbledon final comeback were all evidence that he was still a shade above everyone.
2020 looked no less, with the Australian Open, the ATP Cup and the Dubai Open performances heading into the pandemic hiatus.
The return looked just as smooth with the Western & Southern win, the Rome Masters and a strong US Open until the unfortunate disqualification. The season from the French Open through Vienna and the Tour Finals was not one to remember for him or his fans.
It was just four losses, and four losses is not something to write anyone off, even less Djokovic. But, it was the nature of the losses that raises question marks.
A French Open final against Nadal where the Serb wins two games in the first two sets, an Austria Open loss to Lorenzo Sonego in about an hour, a similar loss to Medvedev a few weeks later in London and then losing to Dominic Thiem when he was two points from a win in the breaker (one of his strongest suites) and collapses in a heap.
Not to take anything away from the opponents, but these are very atypical of Djokovic and that too in such quick succession. Was there more to it? The Adria Tour controversy, the US Open disqualification, the PTPA break-off, or is it less motivation on most matters aside the Grand Slam count?
What will 2021 bring?
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What Does 2021 Hold for Djokovic?
In years past, one always predicts the year ahead to be one where Djokovic starts as favorite on all surfaces and an equal contender to Nadal on the clay. Looking ahead to 2021 is a little different, no doubt.
The reasons alluded to above around Djokovic’s dip in form at the end of the 2020 season as well as the likes of Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and others looking more ready than ever to match the Big Three on all stages.
Djokovic is an eight-time Australian Open champion and heads to Melbourne seeking another three-Pete there. While he will probably begin as a slight favorite, there is every reason to believe both Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev could very well win their first Down Under major.
Both have shown their abilities on the fast hard courts, both have defeated Djokovic on such courts as recently as last month, and now the question remains can they stop him at a major. Thiem almost did at the Aussie Open final in 2020…..but he did not.
TWL believes this maybe among the closest Australian Opens in a while and a difficult one to predict a winner ahead of time.
While Djokovic is no mug on the clay, the nature of his loss to Nadal at the French Open final in October will have hurt his confidence at least at Roland Garros. With the next French Open scheduled only eight months after that final, it looks unlikely that he will have the self-belief against the likes of Nadal and Thiem there, both who have beaten him there in recent years.
The only players who have been a threat to Djokovic on the Wimbledon grass in recent times have been the great Roger Federer and Andy Murray.
While Murray is a shade of the player he was, a lot is unknown about Federer’s return to the tour and more so how fit he remains. Federer will undoubtedly give Wimbledon his best shot, with this probably being his last ever, but Djokovic looks a very strong favorite right now on the SW19 grass for another coveted title.
The US Open is still almost nine months away and a lot can change between now and then, especially Djokovic’s year and the evolution of the others.
On the slower Flushing hard courts, he is as good as anyone, but somehow the wins have not been as easy to come by in the latter stages. Currently the US Open seems the most likely for a new slam winner or a Dominic Thiem repeat.
The Masters 1000s have seen a favorable Djokovic, and we can expect that trend to continue on the hard courts, indoors and even on clay. Tour Finals have not been good to the Big Three in half a decade and a best of three set tournament on a fast indoor court will suit all of Thiem, Tsitsipas, Zverev and Medvedev, and one would think one of them would prevail again in 2021.
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2021 Predictions for Djokovic
Novak Djokovic comes into 2021 with perhaps lower expectations than in recent years, but the bar with him has been set so high that even lowering the exalted standards can make for an impressive year.
2021 will more likely than not be the year where Djokovic does not dominate the majors as one often expects him to. But, a Wimbledon title seems difficult to stop and one should not be surprised if he continued his hard court dominance by winning in Melbourne or New York, more likely the former.
As said and heard many times before, Djokovic remains the one to beat almost everywhere for a while… and perhaps for the foreseeable future.