And then there were eight! After an exciting, nerve-racking and at times, slightly disappointing nine days of tennis, the men’s singles half of the draw is left with eight players vying for the US Open 2019 title.
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While world number one Novak Djokovic has been knocked out, partially because of his shoulder ailment, the other two members of the Big Three are still a part of the quarter-final line-up and talks of a Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer final are gathering steam yet again.
If one goes by what the bookmakers are saying, a Nadal-Federer final almost sounds like a given, with bet365 offering 1/1 for that eventuality. The next best option is a Nadal-Stan Wawrinka final at 9/2 – that’s a huge difference at this stage of the competition.
And it shouldn’t really be surprising. After all, the two are now the highest-ranked players left in the draw and the only one who has looked like he might get close to threatening any of the top guns is Daniil Medvedev.
And Medvedev, while he has reached the quarter-final stage himself, has been on the road for a while now, playing in one tournament after another. Having reached three successive finals over those three weeks before the US Open would have taken a physical toll, a possibility he seems to have indirectly confirmed after his third round win over Feliciano Lopez.
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Which is probably also why Medvedev has been shunted down to the fourth spot as a favourite to win the title this year, behind Nadal (10/11), Federer (2/1) and Wawrinka (11/1). Medvedev is 12/1 to go the distance but before doing that, he will need to beat Wawrinka in the quarter-final, possibly Federer in the semi-final and then potentially Nadal in the final.
One thing to do that in best-of-three set matches, but for someone with zero previous quarter-final experience at a quarter-final of Grand Slam tennis, it’s not very surprising that bookmakers aren’t keen on installing Medvedev as a favourite to win this one.
It must be quickly added here that Wawrinka has already taken exception to suggestions that the Djokovic defeat makes a Federer-Nadal final a more distinct possibility. In response to a tweet from French journalist Eric Salliot pondering the same question, Wawrinka sarcastically asked him if the rest of the players should pack up and go home.
Salliot had tweeted:
“I do not know but this event brings us closer to a Fedal no?”
To which, Wawrinka replied:
“Cool to know who is already in the final. Do the others go home?”
As we had earlier said even before Djokovic was ousted, Nadal does seem to have edge on what have been described as slower-than-usual courts, but now with the Serb world number one gone, his path seems to have become clearer. Diego Schwartzman is the kind of opponent who should give the Spaniard no real cause for concern in the quarter-finals, while it’s tough to see either Gael Monfils or Matteo Berrettini beating Nadal over five sets.
In fact, looking at Schwartzman, Monfils and Berrettini combined, Nadal holds a 21-2 win-loss record against them. The two losses, both of which came to Monfils happened in 2009 and 2012 in a best of three match. That’s also why Nadal is a mere 1/3 to reach the final, as opposed to Federer who is currently 4/7.
And what about a Nadal v Federer final? Who holds the edge?
We all know that overall, Nadal has a 26-16 win-loss record against Federer but over the past six matches between these two players, the Swiss maestro leads 5-1 and is 5-0 outside of clay. Interestingly, these two have never played each other at the US Open before this but on outdoor hard-court surfaces, Nadal has a slight edge over Federer, leading him 8-6.
In best-of-five sets, however, Nadal has an even stronger hold over Federer, winning 10 of the 14 matches, and you take Wimbledon out of the equation, this changes to 9-1 in favour of Nadal. The Spaniard should be a favourite to go the distance from here.
Here’re our updated US Open 2019 tips, odds and predictions for the rest of the tournament:
- Nadal v Federer final: 1/1 (with Unibet)
- Nadal to win: 10/11 (with Unibet)
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