The 2023 Australian Open women’s singles draw is officially out. None of the top 10 seeds will have second thoughts on their opening matches, but things could get a little bit fascinating at the start of the second week, when some of the tournament favorites are set to go head to head.
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Iga Swiatek is the pre-tournament favorite, but if her United Cup campaign is anything to go by, the Pole could be in for a shocker. The World No. 1 is likely to reach the second week unscathed, but the level of competition will go up a notch from that moment on.
The likes of Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys, Caroline Garcia, and Ons Jabeur are all looking to end the Pole’s dominance at the Grand Slam level. Could we witness another first-time Major winner in a fortnight’s time?
In this article, we shall delve into analyzing the probable routes of all the top players in the women’s singles field.
Australian Open 2023 Draw Analysis
First Quarter: Swiatek and Gauff Could Be in for a Rematch of the French Open final
Poland’s Iga Swiatek is the top seed at the Australian Open for the first time in her career.
Last year the limelight was on Ashleigh Barty, and this time it will shine brightly on Swiatek who is the odds-on favorite to win her fourth Grand Slam.
Swiatek is projected to face off against No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula in the semifinals in a rematch of their United Cup encounter which was won by the American.
But before the Pole gets there, she has a long list of versatile challengers in her way. Swiatek will take on big-hitting Jule Niemeier in the opening round, and then one of Panna Udvardy or Camila Osorio. Her third-round opponent will likely be Bianca Andreescu, although the Canadian faces a tough bout against Marie Bouzkova right off the bat.
Swiatek will most likely need to take down three Americans in succession to reach the final, starting with last year’s finalist Danielle Collins in the fourth round.
Coco Gauff comes to Melbourne at the peak of her powers. She won a WTA title to start the year at the ASB Classic in Auckland and could set up a rematch against Swiatek in the second week.
Probable Quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek (1) vs Coco Gauff (7)
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Second Quarter: Could this be Pegula’s Year?
Since she announced herself on the WTA Tour in 2019, winning her first title in Washington D.C., Jessica Pegula has been steadily climbing the WTA ladder.
The Buffalo native comes to Melbourne Park with a career-high ranking of No. 3 and is fresh from winning the United Cup in Sydney for her country.
Pegula has not been to a Major final, but won the biggest WTA title of her career in Guadalajara last season.
She is a two-time quarterfinalist at the Australian Open, could this be the year she finally cracks the code?
There won’t be any difficult hurdles in the first week. But that will all change if she draws Petra Kvitova in the fourth round.
The Czech lefty was the only woman to defeat Pegula at the United Cup, and if she turns the tables in that matchup, a quarterfinal against good friend Madison Keys will likely materialize.
Keys is equally in great form and has sixth-seeded Greek Maria Sakkari to worry about at the start of the second week.
There is also a clash between two former Australian Open champions in the first round (and surprisingly the only active champions at Melbourne Park) when Victoria Azarenka plays Sofia Kenin in the first round.
Probable Quarterfinal: Jessica Pegula (3) vs Madison Keys (10)
Third Quarter: Garcia Looks to Address Poor Melbourne Record
Caroline Garcia will have to set the record straight when she opens up her campaign against a qualifier or lucky loser.
The Frenchwoman won the WTA Finals last year against the highest level of opposition in a tournament, so surely she has to fancy her chances of addressing her poor record at the Australian Open.
Garcia has only been to the second week once in her career, back in 2018. There aren’t many players who could trouble Garcia until the quarterfinals.
16th seed Anett Kontaveit is the highest-ranked player she could meet in the fourth round, but the Estonian is not in great form.
That could open up the draw quite nicely for the likes of Magda Linette, Diane Parry, Lucia Bronzetti, and Leylah Fernandez to face Garcia.
Her quarterfinal opponent could be Daria Kasatkina. The Russian is coming off a great run in Adelaide, beating Barbora Krejcikova and Petra Kvitova, but tends to struggle at Melbourne Park. The eighth seed is projected to meet compatriot Veronika Kudermmetova for the right to potentially face Garcia.
Probable Quarterfinal: Caroline Garcia (4) vs Daria Kasatkina (8)
Fourth Quarter: Unbeaten Sabalenka and Jabeur Lead the Charge
For the past three years, Aryna Sabalenka has been tipped to win a Grand Slam but hasn’t delivered on that front.
She came close to doing so in 2021 and 2022, losing the semifinals at Wimbledon and US Open. But she has hit a purple at the start of the year, winning her 12th WTA title in Adelaide.
Sabalenka will play tattooed Czech Tereza Martincova in the first round and could meet her former doubles partner Elise Mertens in the third round.
Provided the Belarusian does not stumble before the second week, she could draw Swiss No. 12 seed Belinda Bencic in the fourth round. The pair are tied at 1-1 in their head-to-head.
Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur comes to the Australian Open with doubts lingering about her physical conditioning.
She appeared to struggle with a back injury in her defeat to teenage star Linda Noskova in Adelaide.
Maybe this could be the time we see a big breakthrough from a player like Ludmilla Samsonova who is a handful on hard courts. Or Beatriz Haddad Maia who played the season of her life in 2022.
Do not be surprised if the Tunisian trailblazer falls prey to any of the lower-ranked players before the quarterfinals.
Probable Quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs Ludmilla Samsonova (18)
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